A Way Forward on the #AKbudget

As I have before, Tuesday evening I presented to a meeting of the Alaska Republican Assembly on Alaska’s current fiscal situation.   The slide deck is above.

The presentation covered my views on what the current outlook is for Alaska’s fiscal situation if we continue down the road of “business as usual,” an analysis of the alternatives that have been proposed for changing course and my thoughts on the best way forward.

My conclusions?

  • Alaska is not “falling of the cliff” immediately, but the 10-year outlook demonstrates we can’t continue “Business as Usual”
  • “Cuts only” based on traditional revenue sources fall well below FY 2006 adjusted (pre-bubble) spending levels, send Alaska back to pre-oil spending levels
  • Based on current, long-term fiscal outlook, “Sovereign Wealth Fund” and SB 114 both go unnecessarily far by cutting PFD and taxes
  • Based on current, long-term fiscal outlook, Goldsmith model remains best current approach (properly monitored and adjusted)
  • The Legislature needs to respond to S&P this session

4 responses to “A Way Forward on the #AKbudget

  1. Pingback: How deep are the Governor and GCI proposing to cut the PFD … | Thoughts on Alaska Oil & Gas

  2. Brad Keithley. I don’t see any costs to the state of AKLNG construction costs. It has been projected that once (if) construction starts, the State Of Alaska’s share would be about $2.7 Billion per year. Where does this come from? The PFD corpus??????


    • David .. I am not sure where you looked, but they are in the Governor’s 10-year forecast (it appears he is proposing to finance through debt) and included (as debt service) as part of spending in this analysis.


  3. Pingback: A Way Forward on the Alaska Budget: A Presentation to the Friday Fairbanks GOP Lunch | Thoughts on Alaska Oil & Gas