Thoughts on Alaska Oil & Gas

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 — our look at the top 3 things on our mind this week — for the week of September 10, 2018.

The Weekly Top 3 is a regular segment on The Michael Dukes Show. I join Michael on the Show each Tuesday from, now 6:20-7am for a discussion between the two of us about the three issues. The Show broadcasts on FacebookLive and via streaming audio from the Show’s website weekdays from 6-8am.

This week’s show is a deep dive into both federal and state fiscal issues. Maya MacGuineas of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget joins Michael in the first segment (at 2:09) to talk about federal fiscal issues. Then we join in the second (at 33:22) to focus on state issues. Because there is a significant connection between the two we include both segments in this podcast.

Our segment focuses on these three issues:

* First, following on from Maya’s discussion, why we believe Alaska’s fiscal situation in many respects is, unfortunately, a mirror image of the situation at the federal level (at 33:22);

* Second, now that oil prices and production levels are recovering, why we believe refilling the Constitutional Budget Reserve (CBR) should become a priority (at 52:45); and

* Third, what its going to take from a budget standpoint to preserve the PFD over the long term (at 1:12:35).

The segment is at the YouTube clip above. For those that prefer the audio version, it is available on our Soundcloud page here. For this and other complete podcasts of The Michael Dukes Show, go to the Show’s Soundcloud page here.

For those interested, our YouTube home page contains all of our recent radio appearances, online and radio ads and other presentations. For a collection of our past episodes on Soundcloud, go here.

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 — our look at the top 3 things on our mind this week — for the week of September 3, 2018.

The Weekly Top 3 is a regular segment on The Michael Dukes Show. I join Michael on the Show each Tuesday from, now 6:20-7am for a discussion between the two of us about the three issues. The Show broadcasts on FacebookLive and via streaming audio from the Show’s website weekdays from 6-8am.

This week our Top 3 issues are these: (1) we explain why we believe the sustainable budget number is significantly lower than the $4.3B level Mike Dunleavy recently has been using (at 2:38), (2) we analyze a new ad by Governor Walker’s campaign that claims he had to cut the PFD to create a “sustainable PFD” (14:09), and (3) we discuss whether the #AKgov & #AKleg have an obligation to future Alaskans and, if so, are they meeting it (20:57).

The segment is at the YouTube clip above. For those that prefer the audio version, it is available on our Soundcloud page here. For this and other complete podcasts of The Michael Dukes Show, go to the Show’s Soundcloud page here.

For those interested, our YouTube home page contains all of our recent radio appearances, online and radio ads and other presentations. For a collection of our past episodes on Soundcloud, go here.

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 — our look at the top 3 things on our mind this week — for the week of August 27, 2018.

The Weekly Top 3 is a regular segment on The Michael Dukes Show. I join Michael on the Show each Tuesday from, now 6:20-7am for a discussion between the two of us about the three issues. The Show broadcasts on FacebookLive and via streaming audio from the Show’s website weekdays from 6-8am.

This week our Top 3 issues are these: (1) why we believe Walker’s labor endorsements actually strengthen Mark Begich’s messaging (at 2:30), (2) a fairly deep look at the strengths and weaknesses of the fiscal positions taken by each of the three remaining candidates for #AKgov (11:50), and (3) what we should take away from the surge these past couple of weeks in analyst and trade press coverage of #AKoil (32:35).

The segment is at the YouTube clip above. For those that prefer the audio version, it is available on our Soundcloud page here. For this and other complete podcasts of The Michael Dukes Show, go to the Show’s Soundcloud page here.

For those interested, our YouTube home page contains all of our recent radio appearances, online and radio ads and other presentations. For a collection of our past episodes on Soundcloud, go here.

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 — our look at the top 3 things on our mind this week — for the week of August 20, 2018.

The Weekly Top 3 is a regular segment on The Michael Dukes Show. I join Michael on the Show each Tuesday from, now 6:20-7am for a discussion between the two of us about the three issues. The Show broadcasts on FacebookLive and via streaming audio from the Show’s website weekdays from 6-8am.

This week we had the discussion twice, sort of. We had the usual discussion with Michael on his show Tuesday morning, then we joined Michael again in the afternoon while he was sitting in as guest host of The Dave Stieren Show. There we had an abbreviated discussion about the same three issues, plus a “bonus,” fourth issue that Michael raised as a result of a piece by Andrew Kitchenman appearing Tuesday morning on the APRN news website.

The Top 3 issues are these: (1) our final thoughts on the primary and the issues we see emerging for the general (at 4:30 of the Dukes Show discussion), (2) our first thoughts on oil taxes (which we anticipate will emerge as an important topic this fall) (16:55), and (3) Sen Dan Sullivan argued that the fed tax cuts would pay for themselves — how’s that going so far as some start to talk about Tax Reform 2.0 (26:10).

The fourth issue, only on The Dave Stieren Show segment, is essentially whether Alaska can afford a full PFD (at 14:27 of the Steiren Show discussion).

The discussions are at the YouTube clips above. For those that prefer the audio versions, they are available on our Soundcloud page here (Dukes) and here (Stieren). For this and other complete podcasts of The Michael Dukes Show, go to the Show’s Soundcloud  page here.

For those interested, our YouTube home page contains all of our recent radio appearances, online and radio ads and other presentations. For a collection of our past episodes on Soundcloud, go here.

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 — our look at the top 3 things on our mind this week — for the week of August 13, 2018.

The Weekly Top 3 is a regular segment on The Michael Dukes Show. I join Michael on the Show each Tuesday from, now 6:20-7am for a discussion between the two of us about the three issues. The Show broadcasts on FacebookLive and via streaming audio from the Show’s website weekdays from 6-8am.

This week our Top 3 issues are these: (1) our look at whether, as some claim, Alaska has settled into a “new economic normal” (at 4:20), (2) as the timetable for #AKLNG slips away, what remains of Gov Walker’s vision for a second term (13:20), and (3) our final, pre-primary wrap up of the issues that we think are important as voters go to the polls next week (24:55).

The segment is at the YouTube clip above. For those that prefer the audio version, it is available on our Soundcloud page here. For this and other complete podcasts of The Michael Dukes Show, go to the Show’s Soundcloud page here.

For those interested, our YouTube home page contains all of our recent radio appearances, online and radio ads and other presentations. For a collection of our past episodes on Soundcloud, go here.

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 — our look at the top 3 things on our mind this week — for the week of August 6, 2018.

The Weekly Top 3 is a regular segment on The Michael Dukes Show. I join Michael on the Show each Tuesday from 9:15-10am for a discussion between the two of us about the three issues. The Show broadcasts on FacebookLive and via streaming audio from the Show’s website weekdays from 9-11am.

This week our Top 3 issues are these: (1) what the real PFD number would have been had the legislature followed the statute (hint, its over $3000) (at 2:05), (2) our take on Mark Begich’s evolving PFD plan (21:32), and (3) our problems with Mead Treadwell’s economic plan (37:00).

The segment is at the YouTube clip above. For those that prefer the audio version, it is available on our Soundcloud page here. For this and other complete podcasts of The Michael Dukes Show, go to the Show’s Soundcloud page here.

For those interested, our YouTube home page contains all of our recent radio appearances, online and radio ads and other presentations. For a collection of our past episodes on Soundcloud, go here.

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 — our look at the top 3 things on our mind this week — for the week of July 30, 2018.

The Weekly Top 3 is a regular segment on The Michael Dukes Show. I join Michael on the Show each Tuesday from 9:15-10am for a discussion between the two of us about the three issues. The Show broadcasts on FacebookLive and via streaming audio from the Show’s website weekdays from 9-11am.

This week our Top 3 issues are these: (1) The coming fiscal tsunami facing state & local governments across the nation, including Alaska (& why HB 331 — the oil credit bonding bill — is part of Alaska’s share of the problem) (at 2:30), (2) our view on whether the Alaska economy is getting better or just worse at a slower rate (28:30), and (3) our thoughts on the critical fiscal issues facing Alaskans three weeks out from the primary (39:05).

The segment is at the YouTube clip above. For those that prefer the audio version, it is available on our Soundcloud page here. For this and other complete podcasts of The Michael Dukes Show, go to the Show’s Soundcloud page here.

For those interested, our YouTube home page contains all of our recent radio appearances, online and radio ads and other presentations. For a collection of our past episodes on Soundcloud, go here.

Yesterday, we hosted the Tom Anderson Show for a day. As we always do, we used the opportunity to explore with knowledgeable guests various oil, gas and fiscal policy related issues important to Alaska. The segments are at the YouTube clips below. For those that prefer the audio version, they are collected on our Soundcloud page here.

We started with Cody Rice, an analyst with global oil & gas consulting group Wood Mackenzie about the current global LNG market and #AKLNG‘s place in it.

In the second hour, we talked to Craig Medred, well known Alaska journalist now writing at craigmedred.news, about this year’s fishing runs, how the politics of fish may affect this year’s Governor’s race and then, separately, about the quality of the reporting during this year’s Alaska election cycle.

Then in the third hour, we talked to we talk to Maya MacGuineas, the President of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, about the current federal fiscal situation, the status of Social Security and ways that Alaskans can be involved in finding solutions.

And of course, in an around the three hours we also took the opportunity to offer some views of our own on (1) why we haven’t cut the #AKbudget more (at 0:48); (2) the #akleg‘s use of #CreditCard fiscal policy (8:05); (3) our view of the state of the #AKecon (10:24); and (4) our view of where we are headed this #akelect cycle (12:20).

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 — our look at the top 3 things on our mind this week — for the week of July 23, 2018.

The Weekly Top 3 is a regular segment on The Michael Dukes Show. I join Michael on the Show each Tuesday from 9:15-10am for a discussion between the two of us about the three issues. The Show broadcasts on FacebookLive and via streaming audio from the Show’s website weekdays from 9-11am.

This week our Top 3 issues are these: (1) why there is a difference between “Alaska First” (Gov. Walker’s campaign theme) and AlaskaNS First, and why that difference is important (at 3:17); (2) are we on track, as Mike Dunleavy claims in a recent op-ed, for a “new legislature, which will look dramatically different next year, and what’s the consequences if that doesn’t happen (21:02); and (3) from the federal budget side, even the Trump Admin now admits we are headed for $1 T+ deficits; what does that mean for Alaska (34:24).

The segment is at the YouTube clip above. For those that prefer the audio version, it is available on our Soundcloud page here. For this and other complete podcasts of The Michael Dukes Show, go to the Show’s Soundcloud page here.

For those interested, our YouTube home page contains all of our recent radio appearances, online and radio ads and other presentations. For a collection of our past episodes on Soundcloud, go here.