Thoughts on Alaska Oil & Gas

Each Tuesday morning at 7:20 am Alaska, I join KBYR AM700‘s The Michael Dukes Show to discuss the latest in Alaska oil and fiscal issues. This week we started the discussion with this month’s International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Oil Market Report, released this morning.   The report revises some of IEA’s previous work by concluding that current oversupply conditions in global oil markets (and thus, price softness) are now expected to continue into 2017.

We followed that discussion by focusing on what that revised outlook means for Alaska, and then in the second segment while discussing the need for continued state spending reductions (a needed step regardless of the IEA’s outlook), we discuss a recent analysis that shows the Alaska legislature is spending way, way more (i.e., more than double) on the University of Alaska (UA) compared with what other states are spending on UA’s self-defined “peer institutions.”  I join Michael at 14:45 into the segment.

Listen here or at the widget below and for past episodes, go here.

As regular readers know, most Tuesday mornings at 7:20 am Alaska, I join KBYR AM700‘s The Michael Dukes Show to discuss the latest in Alaska oil and fiscal issues.

This week has been a bit different.  As I have explained in previous posts, with Michael off on assignment I have been sitting on the other side of the microphone as the show’s guest host.

Because some of the resulting discussions have touched directly on oil, gas and fiscal policy issues I have posted excerpts here (Sept 2) and here (Sept 6/7).

This post covers yesterday (Sept 8), the final day of my stint as guest host.  The relevant segments from the show are as follows:

• Interview with Dean Westlake (D-House District 40, North Slope and Northwest Arctic Boroughs) about issues important to that district and the views there on state fiscal issues (6am block at 14:20),
• Interview with Nils Andreassen, the Managing Director of the Institute of the North about Alaska’s Arctic issues, which touch on both oil and fiscal issues (6am block at 31:35),
• My comments on spending levels at the University of Alaska (7am block at 3:15) (for the statement that triggered my comments see “In lean times, supporters of Seawolves sports make their pitch to university president,” quoting UA President Jim Johnsen as saying: “We are the most dependent university system in the United States on its legislature for funding — No. 1.”), and
• Interview with candidate David Eastman (R-House District 10, Wasilla & Susitna River Drainage) about issues important to that district and the views there on fiscal issues (7am block at 30:52).

Listen here or at the widget below for the podcasts of the show, and for past episodes of my regular Tuesday discussions with Michael on these issues, go here.

As regular readers know, most Tuesday mornings at 7:20 am Alaska, I join KBYR AM700‘s The Michael Dukes Show to discuss the latest in Alaska oil and fiscal issues.

This week is a bit different.  With Michael off on “assignment” (hahahaha — most people call it a vacation, but I am learning that journalists call it an “assignment”), last Friday and most of this week I have been sitting on the other side of the microphone as the show’s guest host.  As a result, instead of applying my experience to respond to questions from Michael, I have been using it mostly to develop  context and frame questions during discussions with others.

Because I think the resulting discussions are informative on the issues we address on these pages I am posting the podcasts of the discussions from Tuesday (Sept 6, 2016) and today (Sept 7, 2016) here.  (We already have posted the ones from last Friday’s show here.)  The relevant segments are as follows:

Tuesday (Sept 6, 2016)

• My take on the Administration’s proposal to use the Permanent Fund to pay for oil credits (8am block at 33:30 into the segment).

Wednesday (Sept 7, 2016)

• Interview with Rebecca Logan of the Alliance and news and opinion source AKHeadlamp on #AKLNG, the dispute between the Administration and BP over the Prudhoe Bay Plan of Development & the use of the Permanent Fund to pay oil credits (6am block at 32.35 into the segment),
• Interview with House District 18 Republican candidate Mike Gordon on #AKLNG & #OilCredits (7am block at 13:15 into the segment), and
• Interview with KTVA’s Liz Raines on the proposed use of the Permanent Fund to pay #OilCredits, Sen. Wielechowski’s suit to restore the full PFD and what happens next in the House District 40 race (8am block at 14:10).

Listen here or at the widget below for Tuesday and Wednesday’s episodes, and for past episodes of my regular Tuesday discussions with Michael on these issues, go here.

As most readers know, each Tuesday morning at 7:20 am Alaska, I join KBYR AM700‘s The Michael Dukes Show to discuss the latest in Alaska oil and fiscal issues.

With Michael off on assignment, this past Friday I also sat in as guest host for the show.  Usually on Fridays the show revolves around firearms, with Michael calling them “Firearms Friday.”  With me sitting in as guest host, this past week the show transformed into “Fiscal Friday,” with parts of the first and second hours focused on Alaska fiscal issues.

Because I think they are informative on the issues we discuss on these pages I am posting the first and second hours of the show here.  In the first hour we were joined by Todd Moss, Chief Operating Officer and Senior Fellow of the Washington-based think tank, The Center for Global Development.  In addition to other works, Todd has published two books which center on fiscal programs similar to Alaska’s PFD.  The books are “The Governor’s Solution: How Alaska’s Oil Dividend Could Work in Iraq and Other Oil-Rich Countries (An Oil-to-Cash Reader)”  and “Oil to Cash: Fighting the Resource Curse through Cash Transfers.” 

In my experience, Todd has the best grasp of anyone of the significance of PFD-like programs to the strength and success of resource based economies.  He joined us at 13:00 into the 6am hour.

Then, Rep. Tammie Wilson joined us in the second hour to discuss her perspective on what are the most important fiscal issues that will be facing the legislature this coming session.  Standing for reelection this year for her fifth term, Rep. Wilson has served on House Finance since 2011, earning a reputation as one of the most fiscally conservative members of both the Committee and the legislature.  As always, the discussion with her was enlightening. She joined us at 14:15 into the 7am hour.

Listen here or at the widget below for Friday’s episodes, and for past episodes of my regular Tuesday discussions with Michael on these issues, go here.

As most readers know, each Tuesday morning at 7:20 am Alaska, I join KBYR AM700‘s The Michael Dukes Show to discuss the latest in Alaska oil and fiscal issues.

This week’s discussion is a bit different than most.  One of the reasons we use the sustainable budget model developed by Dr. Scott Goldsmith to analyze state fiscal issues is because it is an excellent tool for identifying the consequences of current decisions on Alaska’s future fiscal situation — and by extension, overall economy.  Looking at the consequences through the lens of that model, I believe Alaska received at last week’s #AKLNG hearings before the Joint Senate and House Resource Committees some very, very … very … bad news about the outlook for the state’s fiscal situation and economy .

In a sound bite, I believe both Alaska’s state budget and economy are headed to a very difficult place if the direction that emerged from those hearings comes to pass.

I outlined the reasons why in a piece posted on the blog over the weekend — “Why the #AKLNG hearings have us thinking about Don McLean’s ‘the day the music died’”.  This week’s conversation with Michael Dukes expands on that piece, and in the second segment focuses on what I think that means also for the current debate around cutting the #PFD.

Some — especially in the current election cycle those wanting to minimize the effect of continuing down the current road — will suggest that my concerns are overblown.  In response I offer this recent observation from Casey Reynolds’ political blog, The Midnight Sun:

Fiscal conservative advocate Brad Keithley spent … his own money two years ago in a campaign to convince lawmakers that the state was on the verge of a budget crisis, only to see Republican candidates and radio hosts alike declare loudly he was being an alarmist. They of course then acknowledged he was right the day after the election.

Based on last week’s hearings, I believe we are headed to an even more difficult place than I thought then.  For the reasons I believe why — and what that place may look like when we arrive — pick up my discussion with Michael at 15:00 into the segment.

Listen here or at the widget below and for past episodes, go here.

Each Tuesday morning at 7:20 am Alaska, I join KBYR AM700‘s The Michael Dukes Show to discuss the latest in Alaska oil and fiscal issues. This week we discuss what the results from last week’s primaries mean for #AKfiscal policy going forward, and my view that the #AGDC is taking a huge step backwards on the #AKLNG project. I join Michael at 14:55 into the segment.

Listen here or at the widget below and for past episodes, go here.

Each Tuesday morning at 7:20 am Alaska, I join KBYR AM700‘s The Michael Dukes Show to discuss the latest in Alaska oil and fiscal issues.  Because today is the Primary Election Day edition, we started at the top of the hour (the 7:00 am segment).  I join Michael at 1:00 into the show.

Since it is election day, the discussion focused on what I think is the most significant issue facing voters this year — how we go forward on the PFD.  While the issue itself isn’t on the ballot, it is showing up in various ways in several primary races because of the positions various candidates have taken.  We discussed how the old Hickel v. Hammond debate is resurrecting itself in the current PFD debate, the role of the PFD in the Alaska economy and the importance of this election to the future of the PFD.

The recent piece by Charles Wohlforth on the differences between Hickel and Hammond on the role of Permanent Fund earnings that Michael and I use to start the discussion is here.  The guide to candidate positions on the PFD that I reference in the second segment is available here.

Listen here or at the widget below for today’s discussion; for past episodes, go here.