Our Mission Statement for the 2018 Election Cycle

AK4SB Endorsements 2018 Election Cycle (as of 11.11.2017)

Candidates filed as of Nov. 11, 2017 (right click for a larger view)

 

We have been working on a number of pieces of our Independent Expenditure effort as we prepare for the coming election cycle. For those interested, here is the current draft of our mission statement.

Alaska is in a recession.

The ISER analysis of the state’s current fiscal situation has been crystal clear throughout that cutting the PFD adds to that.  According to that analysis, cutting the PFD has the “largest adverse impact on the economy” (both on jobs and income) and is “by far the costliest measure for Alaska families” of all the various “new revenue” options. 

Those are the direct quotes:  “largest” and “costliest.” 

There are no contrary analyses; none. There hasn’t even been a substantive rebuttal of the point.

Yet, despite the fact that the state is already in a recession, that is the fiscal policy that, to varying degrees, the Governor, Senate and House all have pursued.

There are some beneficiaries of that policy.  Some parts of the economy tied closely to government spending levels have been maintained, and the Top 20% of Alaskans by income have dodged paying a significant share of the resulting costs.

But those have come at the disproportionate expense of the Remaining 80% of Alaskans and, even more importantly, at the cost of imposing a larger adverse impact on the overall economy and Alaska families.

Put simply, the Governor, Senate & House have prioritized the government sector over the overall economy, and the Top 20% of Alaskans over the Remaining 80%.

They have made the overall Alaska economy and the economic position of most Alaskans worse.

In our view that creates a need for significant change this coming election. We intend to play a role in bringing that about.

If we have to go there …

We started running an online ad campaign today explaining our views on how Alaska should raise so-called “new revenues” for government, if we have to go there.  The video is above. For those interested, the full slidedeck used in the video is at our Slideshare page at https://goo.gl/Xxw9Rb, and a more detailed commentary explaining our position is here, at Page Two of our blog, https://goo.gl/trVzaQ.

This week (December 5, 2017) on the Michael Dukes Show

Each Tuesday morning at 7:20 am Alaska, I join KBYR AM700‘s The Michael Dukes Show to discuss the latest in Alaska oil, gas and fiscal issues. This week Michael and I discuss what the oil industry and it allies are overlooking when they talk about Alaska tax policy & the effect of the US Senate #TaxReform bill on Alaskans.

The segment is at the YouTube clip above. The full show is available from The Michael Dukes Show’s Soundcloud page.

For those interested, our YouTube home page, herecontains all of our recent radio appearancesonline and radio ads and other presentations. For those interested in a simplified audio version, we also post our radio segments to Soundcloud.  The fiscal segment from Tuesday’s show is available on Soundcloud here. For a collection of our past episodes on Soundcloud, go here.

This week (November 28, 2017) on the Michael Dukes Show

Each Tuesday morning at 7:20 am Alaska, I join KBYR AM700‘s The Michael Dukes Show to discuss the latest in Alaska oil, gas and fiscal issues. This week Michael and I discuss the good and bad of #AKLNG as the Administration releases more details, and why the current federal tax debate increasingly sounds similar to the Alaska fiscal debate.

The segment is at the YouTube clip above. The full show is available from The Michael Dukes Show’s Soundcloud page.

For those interested, our YouTube home page, herecontains all of our recent radio appearancesonline and radio ads and other presentations. For those interested in a simplified audio version, we also post our radio segments to Soundcloud.  The fiscal segment from Tuesday’s show is available on Soundcloud here. For a collection of our past episodes on Soundcloud, go here.

This week (November 21, 2017) on the Michael Dukes Show

Each Tuesday morning at 7:20 am Alaska, I join KBYR AM700‘s The Michael Dukes Show to discuss the latest in Alaska oil, gas and fiscal issues. This week Michael and I discuss how the federal tax debate over the impact of various proposals on middle income families reveals the hypocrisy of both Alaska R’s and D’s at the state level, and while the RDC conference last week was optimistic, whether that translates to Alaska’s fiscal situation.

The segment is at the YouTube clip above. The full show is available from The Michael Dukes Show’s Soundcloud page.

For those interested, our YouTube home page, herecontains all of our recent radio appearancesonline and radio ads and other presentations. For those interested in a simplified audio version, we also post our radio segments to Soundcloud.  The fiscal segment from Tuesday’s show is available on Soundcloud here. For a collection of our past episodes on Soundcloud, go here.

AGDC Presentation on China Agreements

Above is the slidedeck used by Alaska Gasline Development Corporation (AGDC) President Keith Meyer at the 38th Annual Resource Development Council (RDC) Alaska Resources Conference on November 16, 2017.

While the entire presentation is of interest, to us the most important part are slides 8-11, discussing the economics of the project.  Those economics are based on various assumptions, including, after financing most of the capital cost of the project, that China will be satisfied to continue to pay market price for the delivered LNG.  Usually in our experience, a purchaser is willing to bear a substantial part of the cost of a project only when it results in achieving a lower than market price or some other strategic objective, such as increased security of supply over other alternatives.  Otherwise, there is no additional benefit that justifies the commitment of their, ultimately limited capital to that project over others.

We intend to delve further into this project in the weeks ahead.  For now, however, we simply want to post these slides so that others can start to do so as well.

The slides also are available from the AGDC website, here.

This week (November 14, 2017) on the Michael Dukes Show

Each Tuesday morning at 7:20 am Alaska, I join KBYR AM700‘s The Michael Dukes Show to discuss the latest in Alaska oil, gas and fiscal issues. This week Michael and I discuss the recent announcement regarding the #AKLNG project and China, and the most stunning fiscal news to come out of the latest special session and what it means for the 2018 regular session and beyond to the election.

The segment is at the YouTube clip above. The full show is available from The Michael Dukes Show’s Soundcloud page.

For those interested, our YouTube home page, herecontains all of our recent radio appearancesonline and radio ads and other presentations. For those interested in a simplified audio version, we also post our radio segments to Soundcloud.  The fiscal segment from Tuesday’s show is available on Soundcloud here. For a collection of our past episodes on Soundcloud, go here.

This week (November 7, 2017) on the Michael Dukes Show

Each Tuesday morning at 7:20 am Alaska, I join KBYR AM700‘s The Michael Dukes Show to discuss the latest in Alaska oil, gas and fiscal issues. This week Michael and I discuss what the Oil Search acquisition says about Alaska oil & the Alaska Senate R’s disingenuous defense of the their fiscal plan (“we won’t vote for any taxes … except the one we voted for”).

The segment is at the YouTube clip above. The full show is available from The Michael Dukes Show’s Soundcloud page.

For those interested, our YouTube home page, herecontains all of our recent radio appearancesonline and radio ads and other presentations. For those interested in a simplified audio version, we also post our radio segments to Soundcloud.  The fiscal segment from Tuesday’s show is available on Soundcloud here. For a collection of our past episodes on Soundcloud, go here.

This week (October 31, 2017) on the Michael Dukes Show

Each Tuesday morning at 7:20 am Alaska, I join KBYR AM700‘s The Michael Dukes Show to discuss the latest in Alaska oil, gas and fiscal issues. This week Michael and I talk about the current #AKleg session, the surprises in DOR’s new preliminary revenue forecast & what effect they should have on state fiscal policy.

The segment is at the YouTube clip above. The full show is available from The Michael Dukes Show’s Soundcloud page.

For those interested, our YouTube home page, herecontains all of our recent radio appearancesonline and radio ads and other presentations. For those interested in a simplified audio version, we also post our radio segments to Soundcloud.  The fiscal segment from Tuesday’s show is available on Soundcloud here. For a collection of our past episodes on Soundcloud, go here.

Why the Administration’s revised 2017 Revenue Forecast calls into question the need for PFD cuts (or any other so-called “new revenue”) …

On Wednesday of this week the Department of Revenue published what they titled the “Preliminary Fall 2017 Revenue Forecast.”  A copy is available here,   https://goo.gl/kEFWzN.

While most have focused on the change reflected in the document from the Administration’s previous oil production and revenue forecasts, we think the largest and most important change is on a different line — the projected increase in realized FY 2018 earnings from the Permanent Fund.

Last Spring the Department projected $3.3 billion in realized Permanent Fund earnings for FY 2018 (https://goo.gl/5FvQNY at p. 4).  The Preliminary Fall Forecast now projects realized earnings at $4.4 billion, more than $1 billion more.

As we discussed in our turn yesterday as guest host of The Tom Anderson Show we think the revised revenue forecast calls into serious question the need for either PFD cuts or any other so-called “new revenue,” other than the implementation of Governor Hammond’s original 50/50 plan.

The segments where we discuss the Preliminary Fall forecast are at the link above.  For those that prefer to listen on Soundcloud, the audio is here,  https://goo.gl/7w6S3n.

This week (October 24, 2017) on the Michael Dukes Show

Each Tuesday morning at 7:20 am Alaska, I join KBYR AM700‘s The Michael Dukes Show to discuss the latest in Alaska oil, gas and fiscal issues. This week Michael and I discuss how the Administration misunderstands the cause of Alaska’s recession and as a consequence, the solution, and an update on the good and not as good news from the Alaska oil patch.

The segment is at the YouTube clip above. The full show is available from The Michael Dukes Show’s Soundcloud page.

For those interested, our YouTube home page, herecontains all of our recent radio appearancesonline and radio ads and other presentations. For those interested in a simplified audio version, we also post our radio segments to Soundcloud.  The fiscal segment from Tuesday’s show is available on Soundcloud here. For a collection of our past episodes on Soundcloud, go here.