Our Top 3 for the Week of January 15, 2018

WELCOME to this week’s edition of our Weekly Top 3, a quick, 15 minute review of the three biggest issues on which we are focusing as we pivot from the prior week to the one upcoming.

This week we discuss the Legislative Finance Division’s analysis of the Governor’s proposed budget (which, once adjusted for oil tax credits, finds that the Governor’s budget proposes a greater than 10% increase in UGF spending over FY 2018 levels), the fiscal policy aspects of Politico’s claim that the Alaska legislature is turning more purple, and the potential impact of the recent run up in oil prices on the upcoming budget discussions.

The segment is at the YouTube clip above.  For those that prefer the audio version, it is available on our Soundcloud page here.

For those interested, our YouTube home page contains all of our recent radio appearancesonline and radio ads and other presentations. For a collection of our past episodes on Soundcloud, go here.

Our Mission Statement for the 2018 Election Cycle

AK4SB Endorsements 2018 Election Cycle (as of 1.14.2018)

We have been working on a number of pieces of our Independent Expenditure effort as we prepare for the coming election cycle. For those interested, here is the current draft of our mission statement.

Alaska is in a recession.

The ISER analysis of the state’s current fiscal situation has been crystal clear throughout that cutting the PFD adds to that.  According to that analysis, cutting the PFD has the “largest adverse impact on the economy” (both on jobs and income) and is “by far the costliest measure for Alaska families” of all the various “new revenue” options. 

Those are the direct quotes:  “largest” and “costliest.” 

There are no contrary analyses; none. There hasn’t even been a substantive rebuttal of the point.

Yet, despite the fact that the state is already in a recession, that is the fiscal policy that, to varying degrees, the Governor, Senate and House all have pursued.

There are some beneficiaries of that policy.  Some parts of the economy tied closely to government spending levels have been maintained, and the Top 20% of Alaskans by income have dodged paying a significant share of the resulting costs.

But those have come at the disproportionate expense of the Remaining 80% of Alaskans and, even more importantly, at the cost of imposing a larger adverse impact on the overall economy and Alaska families.

Put simply, the Governor, Senate & House have prioritized the government sector over the overall economy, and the Top 20% of Alaskans over the Remaining 80%.

They have made the overall Alaska economy and the economic position of most Alaskans worse.

In our view that creates a need for significant change this coming election. We intend to play a role in bringing that about.

Our Top 3 for the Week of January 8, 2018

WELCOME to the inaugural edition of our Weekly Top 3, a quick, 15 minute review of the three biggest issues on which we are focusing as we pivot from the prior week to the one upcoming.

This week we discuss Sen. Pete Kelly’s odd claim that the Alaska Senate R’s refuse “to get to yes on a plan that takes money out of the private sector” (when that is what they already have agreed to the last two years), the Governor’s proposal for how to finance the state’s share of #AKLNG, and the potential adverse impact on Alaska of the Trump Administration’s proposal to open all of the US coastal areas to oil & gas leasing.

The segment is at the YouTube clip above.  For those that prefer the audio version, it is available on our Soundcloud page here.

For those interested, our YouTube home page contains all of our recent radio appearancesonline and radio ads and other presentations. For a collection of our past episodes on Soundcloud, go here.

This week (December 20, 2017) on the Michael Dukes Show

Each Tuesday morning at 7:20 am Alaska, I join The Michael Dukes Show to discuss the latest in Alaska oil, gas and fiscal issues. This week (which occurred on Wednesday for this week only) Michael and I dive into the Governor’s proposed FY 2019 budget: what are the real proposed spending levels & our thoughts on the proposed oil tax credit bonds and the “Alaska Economic Recovery Act.”

The segment is at the YouTube clip above. The full show is available from The Michael Dukes Show’s Soundcloud page.  The Show is now available daily on Facebook Live at The Michael Dukes Show Facebook Page  and on Livestream, from the link on The Michael Dukes Show website.

For those interested, our YouTube home page, herecontains all of our recent radio appearancesonline and radio ads and other presentations. For those interested in a simplified audio version, we also post our radio segments to Soundcloud.  The fiscal segment from Tuesday’s show is available on Soundcloud here. For a collection of our past episodes on Soundcloud, go here.

This week (December 12, 2017) on the Michael Dukes Show

Each Tuesday morning at 7:20 am Alaska, I join The Michael Dukes Show to discuss the latest in Alaska oil, gas and fiscal issues. This week Michael and I discuss whether the worst of the current Alaska recession is behind us and yet another fiscal issue facing Alaska government (this one is about $8 billion).

The segment is at the YouTube clip above. The full show is available from The Michael Dukes Show’s Soundcloud page.  The Show is now available daily on Facebook Live at The Michael Dukes Show Facebook Page  and on Livestream, from the link on The Michael Dukes Show website.

For those interested, our YouTube home page, herecontains all of our recent radio appearancesonline and radio ads and other presentations. For those interested in a simplified audio version, we also post our radio segments to Soundcloud.  The fiscal segment from Tuesday’s show is available on Soundcloud here. For a collection of our past episodes on Soundcloud, go here.

This week (December 5, 2017) on the Michael Dukes Show

Each Tuesday morning at 7:20 am Alaska, I join KBYR AM700‘s The Michael Dukes Show to discuss the latest in Alaska oil, gas and fiscal issues. This week Michael and I discuss what the oil industry and it allies are overlooking when they talk about Alaska tax policy & the effect of the US Senate #TaxReform bill on Alaskans.

The segment is at the YouTube clip above. The full show is available from The Michael Dukes Show’s Soundcloud page.

For those interested, our YouTube home page, herecontains all of our recent radio appearancesonline and radio ads and other presentations. For those interested in a simplified audio version, we also post our radio segments to Soundcloud.  The fiscal segment from Tuesday’s show is available on Soundcloud here. For a collection of our past episodes on Soundcloud, go here.

This week (November 28, 2017) on the Michael Dukes Show

Each Tuesday morning at 7:20 am Alaska, I join KBYR AM700‘s The Michael Dukes Show to discuss the latest in Alaska oil, gas and fiscal issues. This week Michael and I discuss the good and bad of #AKLNG as the Administration releases more details, and why the current federal tax debate increasingly sounds similar to the Alaska fiscal debate.

The segment is at the YouTube clip above. The full show is available from The Michael Dukes Show’s Soundcloud page.

For those interested, our YouTube home page, herecontains all of our recent radio appearancesonline and radio ads and other presentations. For those interested in a simplified audio version, we also post our radio segments to Soundcloud.  The fiscal segment from Tuesday’s show is available on Soundcloud here. For a collection of our past episodes on Soundcloud, go here.

This week (November 21, 2017) on the Michael Dukes Show

Each Tuesday morning at 7:20 am Alaska, I join KBYR AM700‘s The Michael Dukes Show to discuss the latest in Alaska oil, gas and fiscal issues. This week Michael and I discuss how the federal tax debate over the impact of various proposals on middle income families reveals the hypocrisy of both Alaska R’s and D’s at the state level, and while the RDC conference last week was optimistic, whether that translates to Alaska’s fiscal situation.

The segment is at the YouTube clip above. The full show is available from The Michael Dukes Show’s Soundcloud page.

For those interested, our YouTube home page, herecontains all of our recent radio appearancesonline and radio ads and other presentations. For those interested in a simplified audio version, we also post our radio segments to Soundcloud.  The fiscal segment from Tuesday’s show is available on Soundcloud here. For a collection of our past episodes on Soundcloud, go here.

AGDC Presentation on China Agreements

Above is the slidedeck used by Alaska Gasline Development Corporation (AGDC) President Keith Meyer at the 38th Annual Resource Development Council (RDC) Alaska Resources Conference on November 16, 2017.

While the entire presentation is of interest, to us the most important part are slides 8-11, discussing the economics of the project.  Those economics are based on various assumptions, including, after financing most of the capital cost of the project, that China will be satisfied to continue to pay market price for the delivered LNG.  Usually in our experience, a purchaser is willing to bear a substantial part of the cost of a project only when it results in achieving a lower than market price or some other strategic objective, such as increased security of supply over other alternatives.  Otherwise, there is no additional benefit that justifies the commitment of their, ultimately limited capital to that project over others.

We intend to delve further into this project in the weeks ahead.  For now, however, we simply want to post these slides so that others can start to do so as well.

The slides also are available from the AGDC website, here.

This week (November 14, 2017) on the Michael Dukes Show

Each Tuesday morning at 7:20 am Alaska, I join KBYR AM700‘s The Michael Dukes Show to discuss the latest in Alaska oil, gas and fiscal issues. This week Michael and I discuss the recent announcement regarding the #AKLNG project and China, and the most stunning fiscal news to come out of the latest special session and what it means for the 2018 regular session and beyond to the election.

The segment is at the YouTube clip above. The full show is available from The Michael Dukes Show’s Soundcloud page.

For those interested, our YouTube home page, herecontains all of our recent radio appearancesonline and radio ads and other presentations. For those interested in a simplified audio version, we also post our radio segments to Soundcloud.  The fiscal segment from Tuesday’s show is available on Soundcloud here. For a collection of our past episodes on Soundcloud, go here.

This week (November 7, 2017) on the Michael Dukes Show

Each Tuesday morning at 7:20 am Alaska, I join KBYR AM700‘s The Michael Dukes Show to discuss the latest in Alaska oil, gas and fiscal issues. This week Michael and I discuss what the Oil Search acquisition says about Alaska oil & the Alaska Senate R’s disingenuous defense of the their fiscal plan (“we won’t vote for any taxes … except the one we voted for”).

The segment is at the YouTube clip above. The full show is available from The Michael Dukes Show’s Soundcloud page.

For those interested, our YouTube home page, herecontains all of our recent radio appearancesonline and radio ads and other presentations. For those interested in a simplified audio version, we also post our radio segments to Soundcloud.  The fiscal segment from Tuesday’s show is available on Soundcloud here. For a collection of our past episodes on Soundcloud, go here.