Category Archives: Immediate Reactions

This week (July 18, 2017) on The Michael Dukes Show …

Each Tuesday morning at 7:20 am Alaska, I join KBYR AM700‘s The Michael Dukes Show to discuss the latest in Alaska oil and fiscal issues. This week Michael and I discuss the compromise on cashable oil tax credits and what to look for as negotiations continue on the capital budget.

We have started publishing our weekly discussions both on YouTube and Soundcloud. For those interested, our YouTube page is here. Listen here for this week’s show on Soundcloud. For past episodes on Soundcloud, go here.

The Oil & Gas Journal’s 2017 Midyear Forecast

This morning’s Midyear Forecast presentation from the staff of the Oil & Gas Journal was excellent.  For those that did not listen in and are interested in developing a better understanding of current industry trends (and where they may be taking us), the archived version (1hr, 30min) is available here. The Q&A session toward the end is especially good (and includes a discussion of the outlook for the Arctic).

We have included the slides above for those with less time or interested in only a quick overview.

The most important takeaway for us were the continued concerns around long-term supply (p. 44 of slidedeck to the end) combined with the analysis of the return of cost increases to shale development (p. 38).

At some point, the lack of investment in long term supply is going to have a significant effect even if you believe in reduced demand growth. And even if you believe in addition that shale can fill some or even most of the resulting supply shortfall as it develops, the uptick in cost of shale supply even at current demand levels indicates a significant potential for cost (and thus, price) growth as that occurs.

In short, we believe it affirms the long-term price projections we have been using in our work on Alaska fiscal issues.

This week (June 27, 2017) on The Michael Dukes Show …

Each Tuesday morning at 7:20 am Alaska, I join KBYR AM700‘s The Michael Dukes Show to discuss the latest in Alaska oil and fiscal issues. This week Michael and I discuss where the #AKleg goes from here, ISER’s new analysis of where some of the state spending is going, and why we are approaching the put up or shut up point for #AKLNG. The above is our segment from that show.  The full show is available from the Show’s Soundcloud page.

We have started publishing our weekly discussions both on YouTube and Soundcloud. For those interested, our YouTube page is here. Listen here for this week’s show on Soundcloud. For past episodes on Soundcloud, go here.

This week (June 20, 2017) on The Michael Dukes Show …

Each Tuesday morning at 7:20 am Alaska, I join KBYR AM700‘s The Michael Dukes Show to discuss the latest in Alaska oil and fiscal issues. This week Michael and I discuss the current Alaska budget impasse, what it will take to resolve it, where the #AKleg is on oil taxes and the best way forward on that issue.  The above is our segment from that show.  The full show is available from the Show’s Soundcloud page.

We have started publishing our weekly discussions both on YouTube and Soundcloud. For those interested, our YouTube page is here. Listen here for this week’s show on Soundcloud. For past episodes on Soundcloud, go here.

This week (June 16, 2017) on The Michael Dukes Show …


After a hiatus to fix some technical issues, KBYR AM700‘s The Michael Dukes Show podcasts are back, beginning with a special, Fiscal Friday edition to report on and discuss the previous evening’s dramatic developments on the House floor related to the FY 2018 budget.  The above is our segment from that show.  The full show, which included discussions with legislators and others is available from the Show’s Soundcloud page.

As regular readers know, each Tuesday morning at 7:20 am Alaska, I join the show to discuss the latest in Alaska oil and fiscal issues. We have started publishing our weekly discussions both on YouTube and Soundcloud. For those interested, our YouTube page is here. Listen here for this week’s show on Soundcloud. For past episodes on Soundcloud, go here.

 

This week (May 9, 2017) on The Michael Dukes Show …

Each Tuesday morning at 7:20 am Alaska, I join KBYR AM700‘s The Michael Dukes Show to discuss the latest in Alaska oil and fiscal issues. This week Michael and I discuss the deepening Alaska recession, how both bodies of the Alaska legislature are proposing to make it even worse, and we break down the numbers of how much cash the state has this year to pay its bills and what happens if the Governor and Legislature don’t agree on a “permanent” fiscal plan (spoiler alert, we are fine). For those interested, the spreadsheet we use to walk through the numbers is available here: goo.gl/16sXnm

We have started publishing our weekly discussions both on YouTube and Soundcloud. Listen at the widget above for this week’s show on YouTube.  For those interested, our YouTube page is here.

Listen here for this week’s show on Soundcloud. For past episodes on Soundcloud, go here.

This week (May 2, 2017) on The Michael Dukes Show …

Each Tuesday morning at 7:20 am Alaska, I join KBYR AM700‘s The Michael Dukes Show to discuss the latest in Alaska oil and fiscal issues. This week Michael and I discuss the current status of each #AKleg body’s fiscal plan, where that process is headed, the surprising and strong resurgence of #AKoil in the midst of that & what that should mean to the #AKfiscal debate (but hasn’t yet).

We have started publishing our weekly discussions both on YouTube and Soundcloud. Listen at the widget above for this week’s show on YouTube.  For those interested, our YouTube page is here.

Listen here for this week’s show on Soundcloud. For past episodes on Soundcloud, go here.

This week (April 25, 2017) on The Michael Dukes Show …

Each Tuesday morning at 7:20 am Alaska, I join KBYR AM700‘s The Michael Dukes Show to discuss the latest in Alaska oil and fiscal issues. This week Michael and I discuss why those fighting an income tax but supporting PFD cuts are being hypocritical, the significance of a new analysis from the Institute of Taxation and Economic Policy (“Comparing the Distributional Impact of Revenue Options in Alaska”), and our quick views on the Senate’s rewrite of the House’s oil tax change.

We have started publishing our weekly discussions both on YouTube and Soundcloud. Listen at the widget above for this week’s show on YouTube.  For those interested, our YouTube page is here.

Listen here for this week’s show on Soundcloud. For past episodes on Soundcloud, go here.

Our response to Senator Kelly …

Earlier this week the Alaska Senate Majority started running a social media ad featuring a video of Senate President Pete Kelly advocating for the Senate’s proposed fiscal plan.  The Senate’s plan relies solely on PFD cuts to raise “new revenue.”

The purpose of the ad is to compare the Senate’s plan against the House plan, which relies on a combination of PFD cuts and an income tax to raise “new revenue.”  The ad focuses on the income tax portion and argues both that it is unnecessary and adversely affects “working Alaskans.”  The Senate’s ad is available here.

As readers of these pages will know, we oppose PFD cuts as part of a proposed “fiscal solution.”  Based on various analyses published last year and this by the Institute of Social and Economic Research, we have come to believe that cutting the PFD is the worst step to take from the perspective of the overall Alaska economy and working Alaska families.  It reduces overall Alaska income more than any other fiscal option, reduces both income and jobs more than any other “new revenue” option, increases poverty levels and income disparity more than any other fiscal option and as ISER concluded in an additonal analysis earlier this year:

A cut in PFDs would be by far the costliest measure for Alaska families.

As a result, after thinking about the Senate Majority’s ad, we put together our response.  Readers can play it at the video above, or on YouTube, here.

This week (April 11, 2017) on The Michael Dukes Show …

Each Tuesday morning at 7:20 am Alaska, I join KBYR AM700‘s The Michael Dukes Show to discuss the latest in Alaska oil and fiscal issues. This week Michael and I discuss why the House passage of HB 111 (the oil tax bill) is the right thing to do at the moment, and why Sen. Natasha Von Imhof’s recent piece in the ADN defending the Senate’s version of a fiscal solution (“Better a temporary deficit than an income tax,” goo.gl/pkjOAL) is wrong.

We have started publishing our weekly discussions both on YouTube and Soundcloud. Listen at the widget above for this week’s show on YouTube.  For those interested, our YouTube page is here.

Listen here for this week’s show on Soundcloud. For past episodes on Soundcloud, go here.