Each Tuesday morning at 7:20 am Alaska, I join KBYR AM750‘s The Michael Dukes Show to discuss the latest in Alaska oil and fiscal issues. This week we discuss a new proposal filed yesterday to impose 35% tax on the #PFD, and whether legislators are coming up short in cutting the #AKbudget down to the target of $4.5 billion in spending, and if they are, why? I join Michael at 14:55 into the segment.
Listen here or at the widget below and for past episodes, go here.
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Each Tuesday morning, now at 7:20 am Alaska, I join KBYR AM750‘s The Michael Dukes Show to discuss the latest in Alaska oil and fiscal issues. This week we discuss the additional spending “cuts” announced yesterday by Senate Finance, the coming House Finance debate on oil tax credits, and an important op-ed on the structure of the Permanent Fund Dividend. We also “name names” of those helping deal with the state’s fiscal situation and some not. I join Michael at 14:20 into the segment. (Beginning with this week’s segment, the show has gone to full 15 minute talk segments to permit a deeper dive into each topic. I will join at 7:20 am and continue up until the 8:00 am break.)
Listen here or at the widget below and for past episodes, go here.
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We don’t accept or often publish ad’s on this page, but this one is so important we decided to publish it here as a column piece:
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Each Tuesday morning at 7:15 am Alaska I join KBYR AM750‘s The Michael Dukes Show to discuss the latest in Alaska oil and fiscal issues. This week we added a special edition on Thursday to discuss legislators who clearly are working to reduce the #AKbudget and who are getting in the way. I join Michael at 9:40 into the segment. Listen here or at the widget below and for past episodes, go here.
For those interested in more, during the week I discussed the topic for a couple of segments also as I filled in as guest host on the Tom Anderson Show. The podcast of the show is here. The segments focused on the #AKbudget begin at 22:00 into the show.
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Late last week I spoke to the Valley Republican Women’s Club (Thursday) and the Kenai Chapter of the Alaska Support Industry Alliance (Friday). The subject for both was A Way Forward on the Alaska Budget.
As I have continued to speak to Alaskans about this issue over the last several weeks in both public forums and elsewhere I increasingly have come to realize that the current debate over Alaska’s fiscal situation ultimately boils down to two issues: first, the outlook for future oil (and LNG) price and production levels, and second, the perceived ability to cut state spending further from current levels.
If you believe the out-years (beyond three years) of the price and production forecast reflected in the Department of Revenue’s Fall 2015 Revenue Sources Book (RSB) are undeniably accurate, or if you believe that spending cannot be cut significantly from current levels, then you come to one conclusion.
On the other hand, if you believe as I do both that the out-year forecast contained in the Fall 2015 RSB may be overly pessimistic and that state spending can be reset successfully nearer levels which are more reflective of the 11-year period extending from FY 1995 – 2006 (the last time Alaska went through a low revenue cycle), adjusted for inflation and population growth — in other words, on what economists refer to as a real (apples-to-apples) basis — then you come to different conclusion. Continue reading
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Each Tuesday morning at 7:15 am Alaska I join KBYR AM750‘s The Michael Dukes Show to discuss the latest in Alaska oil and budget issues. This week we discuss the four fiscal proposals currently on the table in Juneau (three cut the PFD, one doesn’t) & the debate over oil tax credit reform. I join Michael at 8:30 into the segment. Listen here or at the widget below and for past episodes, go here.
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Each Tuesday morning at 7:15 am Alaska I join KBYR AM750‘s The Michael Dukes Show to discuss the latest in Alaska oil and budget issues. This week we discuss what I learned while in Juneau last week and what the #AKleg isn’t yet thinking (or at least talking) about but should. I join Michael at around 10:15 of the following segment. Listen here or at the widget below and for past episodes, go here.
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Remember last spring when the Alaska Legislature finally finished up the FY 2016 budget.
Yep, I do too.
The spending level authorized when they did? $5.18 billion (see circled number below, line 40).
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In the course of recent conversations with Alaskans I have heard some say that they ultimately may be prepared to accept cuts in the PFD and/or the imposition of other taxes on the private sector as long as the state is prepared to make a similar level of cuts in the state government sector.
The purpose of this post is to analyze whether the level of cuts to each sector proposed each under the Governor‘s and GCI‘s recent fiscal plans meet that objective.
The conclusion? Neither the Governor’s nor GCI plans treat the two sectors equally, by a long, long shot. Continue reading
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The short answer is pretty damned deep, a lot more than they are proposing to cut government spending.
One of the things I spent time on while preparing for my presentation last week to the Alaska Republican Assembly (“A Way Forward on the #AKbudget“) was understanding the effect on the PFD of the Governor’s and GCI’s proposed fiscal plans.
It’s not necessarily an easy thing to do. Both the Governor’s and GCI’s fiscal plans propose to change Alaska’s fiscal structure significantly, with the effect that it is challenging to trace the sources and uses of funds in place under the state’s current fiscal approach to how and where they are used under the proposed plans. But it is possible, with some patience. Continue reading
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