At their invitation, yesterday I provided a status report on Alaska LNG Projects to the Mat-Su Borough Port Commission. Understandably, the Commission is interested in the potential use of Port MacKenzie as a terminus for such a project.
The purpose of the presentation was to provide a broad background of all three Alaska projects for the Commission’s discussions, and at the request of Commissioner Paul DuClos to provide a “reality check” on where the projects likely are headed. Andrew Wellner of the Mat-Su Frontiersman caught my summation well in his story on the meeting:
… Keithley said whether Alaska enters this market at all is a big uncertainty. In attempting to sell gas to Asia, the state is entering a crowded market, he said.
Australia and Qatar are producing gas for export and British Columbia seems poised to jump in.
“Lots of suppliers are trying to gear up and compete in this market,” he said.
And Alaska is looking at a large, world-class project when it comes to a pipeline able to export gas.
“The world market is in flux. It’s changing. Alaska can play a role, but it’s by no means certain,” he said.
My summation on timing: “At this point, AGIA project timeline likely will set the pace (3 – 4 years to investment decision). My prediction: AGDC [the HB 4 project] likely will merge into AGIA [the producer-headed ‘Alaska Southcentral LNG Project’].”