Posted onOctober 25, 2016|Comments Off on Lance Pruitt in East Anchorage House District 27
In June of this year, at the end of what became the next to last extension of the legislature’s 2016 session, the House Finance Committee voted on whether to advance SB 128 to the floor.
That bill, which already had passed the Senate, proposed permanently to cut (what supporters refer to euphemistically as “restructure”) the Permanent Fund Dividend (PFD).
By that point the Alaska economy already was in an economic recession. And the legislature already had been advised by the University of Alaska-Anchorage’s Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER) — the state’s best economic think tank — that cutting the PFD was the “most regressive”and would have the “largest adverse impact on the [overall Alaska] economy” of all the state’s fiscal options.Short-Run Economic Impacts of Alaska Fiscal Options,https://goo.gl/ZxR1Hw at A-12, A- 15 (March 2016). Continue reading →
Posted onOctober 25, 2016|Comments Off on Aaron Lowjeski in Fairbanks House District 5
As someone who cares deeply about Alaska’s fiscal and economic condition, from time to time I have gone the extra mile to support candidates that I think, if elected, can be positive difference-makers in developing state fiscal policy.
In that vein I am going the extra mile the last two weeks of this election cycle to support Aaron Lojewski in House District 5 (Fairbanks).
The following radio ad and some related digital is going up today and will run through election day.
Posted onOctober 25, 2016|Comments Off on This week (October 25, 2016) on The Michael Dukes Show …
Each Tuesday morning at 7:20 am Alaska, I join KBYR AM700‘sThe Michael Dukes Show to discuss the latest in Alaska oil and fiscal issues. This week Michael and discuss Craig Medred’s piece on the deepening Walker/business divide (goo.gl/Zt7hyL), the Governor’s letter to various business organizations that has most recently escalated the battle (goo.gl/sihnJX), my take on the top 3 fiscal issues this #AKleg election cycle and my view of how some of the candidates stack up on those issues. I join Michael at 14:45 into the segment.
Listen here or at the widget below and for past episodes, go here.
On Friday we rolled out Alaskans for Sustainable BudgetsFY 2018 sustainable budget number in presentations in Fairbanks before the Interior Alaska Republicans, and in the MatSu Valley before the Alaska Republican Assembly. The slide deck is above, as is a video of the presentation Friday evening before the Alaska Republican Assembly. (Note: the video has been added subsequent to the publication of the original post.)
The roll out comes earlier than in past years, as a way of putting an updated, FY 2018 sustainable budget number in front of the Administration and legislators in advance of the election and subsequent organization.
The number is based on oil price projections made by the federal, and non-partisan Energy Information Administration in July of this year as part of its Annual Energy Outlook 2016. While the state also publishes oil price projections, the latest one, published in the Department of Revenue’s Spring 2016 Revenue Sources Book, is significantly out of line with the EIA and other recent forecasts, came in the middle of a debate over whether Alaska needed so-called “new revenues” in which the Administration was pushing a tax and PFD cut narrative based in substantial part on a low oil price future, and thus, quite frankly, is of significantly questionable credibility and value.
Going forward, we at least will use — and will urge others to use — oil price projections published by reputable, non-partisan sources rather than those published by an Administration (whether Republican, Democrat or Independent) pushing a political agenda based on one view or another of oil prices.
The long term sustainable budget number for FY 2018 is $4.02 billion. The material assumptions that go into the calculation are included on the slide deck.
Posted onOctober 18, 2016|Comments Off on This week (October 18, 2016) on The Michael Dukes Show …
Each Tuesday morning at 7:20 am Alaska, I join KBYR AM700‘sThe Michael Dukes Show to discuss the latest in Alaska oil and fiscal issues. This week Michael and I discuss the hardening lines emerging in the runup to the upcoming #AKleg session. Walker takes on business and increasingly signals he is concerned more about the government economy than Alaska’s overall economy, the University gets personal in an attempt to avoid cost cutting & the #AKLNG transition continues, but is it taking the right direction. I join Michael at 14:10 into the segment.
Listen here or at the widget below and for past episodes, go here.
Posted onOctober 6, 2016|Comments Off on This week (October 4, 2016) on The Michael Dukes Show …
Each Tuesday morning at 7:20 am Alaska, I join KBYR AM700‘sThe Michael Dukes Show to discuss the latest in Alaska oil and fiscal issues. This week Michael and I discuss what criteria the #AKleg should use to decide on an #AKfiscal plan, and as oil returns to $50/bbl, what is going on in the Alaska oil patch. I join Michael at 14:25 into the segment.
Listen here or at the widget below and for past episodes, go here.
Late last week we wrote a column analyzing the state of Alaska’s overall economy and the effect that Governor Walker’s PFD cut was having on it (“Yes, Alaska is now formally in a recession and Bill Walker singlehandedly is making it much worse …,” https://goo.gl/2EMcms).
In response a regular reader offered the observation that, reading the column, they were struck by the irony of what this Administration was doing compared to the last.
Through government overspending the last Administration (and legislatures) created an economic bubble, breaching fundamental economic policy at the high end of a commodity cycle by creating a level of economic activity (and expectation) that was unsustainable over the long term, hyping the then-current government economy at the expense of those to come. Continue reading →
Posted onSeptember 27, 2016|Comments Off on This week (September 27, 2016) on The Michael Dukes Show …
Each Tuesday morning at 7:20 am Alaska, I join KBYR AM700‘sThe Michael Dukes Show to discuss the latest in Alaska oil and fiscal issues. This week Michael and I discussed (1) the Permanent Fund Board’s decision to block Governor Walker’s proposed use of the Permanent Fund to pay oil credits, (2) the Walker Administration’s decision to back off its proposed denial of the annual Prudhoe Bay Unit Plan of Operations, and (3) the significant adverse effect on the overall Alaska economy of Governor Walker’s #PFD cut. I join Michael at 15:15 into the segment.
Listen here or at the widget below and for past episodes, go here.
Posted onSeptember 23, 2016|Comments Off on This week (September 21, 2016) on The Michael Dukes Show …
Each Tuesday morning at 7:20 am Alaska, I join KBYR AM700‘sThe Michael Dukes Show to discuss the latest in Alaska oil and fiscal issues. This week (which was on Wednesday due to travel) Michael and I discussed the issues surrounding Sen. Wielechowski’s PFD suit; if it comes to that, the extent to which Alaska can focus any income and sales taxes on Outsiders; and the Walker Administration’s renewed focus on potentially issuing pension obligation bonds (“POB’s”). I join Michael at 14:30 into the segment.
This is not the first time the Walker Administration has floated the idea of POB’s. My thoughts the last time it arose are collected here.
Listen here or at the widget below and for past episodes, go here.
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