On Wednesday of this week the Department of Revenue published what they titled the “Preliminary Fall 2017 Revenue Forecast.” A copy is available here, https://goo.gl/kEFWzN.
While most have focused on the change reflected in the document from the Administration’s previous oil production and revenue forecasts, we think the largest and most important change is on a different line — the projected increase in realized FY 2018 earnings from the Permanent Fund.
Last Spring the Department projected $3.3 billion in realized Permanent Fund earnings for FY 2018 (https://goo.gl/5FvQNY at p. 4). The Preliminary Fall Forecast now projects realized earnings at $4.4 billion, more than $1 billion more.
As we discussed in our turn yesterday as guest host of The Tom Anderson Show we think the revised revenue forecast calls into serious question the need for either PFD cuts or any other so-called “new revenue,” other than the implementation of Governor Hammond’s original 50/50 plan.
The segments where we discuss the Preliminary Fall forecast are at the link above. For those that prefer to listen on Soundcloud, the audio is here, https://goo.gl/7w6S3n.