This morning’s Midyear Forecast presentation from the staff of the Oil & Gas Journal was excellent. For those that did not listen in and are interested in developing a better understanding of current industry trends (and where they may be taking us), the archived version (1hr, 30min) is available here. The Q&A session toward the end is especially good (and includes a discussion of the outlook for the Arctic).
We have included the slides above for those with less time or interested in only a quick overview.
The most important takeaway for us were the continued concerns around long-term supply (p. 44 of slidedeck to the end) combined with the analysis of the return of cost increases to shale development (p. 38).
At some point, the lack of investment in long term supply is going to have a significant effect even if you believe in reduced demand growth. And even if you believe in addition that shale can fill some or even most of the resulting supply shortfall as it develops, the uptick in cost of shale supply even at current demand levels indicates a significant potential for cost (and thus, price) growth as that occurs.
In short, we believe it affirms the long-term price projections we have been using in our work on Alaska fiscal issues.