Monthly Archives: November 2016

This week (Nov 29, 2016) on The Michael Dukes Show …

Each Tuesday morning at 7:20 am Alaska, I join KBYR AM700‘s The Michael Dukes Show to discuss the latest in Alaska oil and fiscal issues. This week Michael and I discuss a couple of issues likely to play a prominent role in the upcoming #AKleg session. Oil credits and how they relate to efforts to cut the PFD, and Governor Walker’s efforts to enlist local governments to lobby with him on his fiscal plan.

I join Michael at 15:45 into the segment. (Note: I did not have a good phone connection this week so there are some gaps in this discussion. If you are interested, stay with it, I return, until the last one at the end of the segment.)

Listen here or at the widget below and for past episodes, go here.

This week (Nov 22, 2016) on The Michael Dukes Show …

Each Tuesday morning at 7:20 am Alaska, I join KBYR AM700‘s The Michael Dukes Show to discuss the latest in Alaska oil and fiscal issues.  This week Michael and I discuss what the election of Donald Trump may mean for Alaska oil & gas development, and new employment numbers that show the Alaska recession is deepening.  I join Michael at 21:00 into the segment.

Listen here or at the widget below and for past episodes, go here.

A personal note: Today I turn 65 …

Today is my 65th birthday.  It doesn’t feel any different, but contemplating the day’s approach for the past few months has provided some opportunity for reflection and thought about what happens from here.  I never have been one to think about “retiring” and heading off to Sunset City once I reach 65.  Now that I am here, that view certainly hasn’t changed.  But as I have reflected over the past few months, I have realized also I have the resources and opportunity to rearrange my priorities at this point if I have the desire to do so.  And I have realized that I do. Continue reading

Why Sen. Kevin Meyer’s defense of SB 128 opens the door to substantial increases in oil taxes …

Fiscal CliffLast week we wrote a piece with the title, Two questions for Senate President Kevin Meyer this coming Tuesday …https://goo.gl/4URKrN.   The piece outlined two questions we intended to ask Senator Meyer at an upcoming forum about SB 128 — the bill which permanently would have cut (i.e., taxed) the PFD received by individual Alaskans by more than half and transferred the difference to government revenues.

The bill subsequently was voted down in the House Finance Committee, but threatens to return this coming session.

The moderator of the forum directly asked the first question and Senator Meyer later answered the second in the course of responding to another question.  Understandably, the answers largely were a defense of SB 128, but in the course of answering those and one other about the PFD Senator Meyer used a phrase that has triggered some additional thought on our part. Continue reading

Coming up in December: A Comprehensive Conference on Alaska Energy Markets and Regulation

Each December for the last several years (I am losing track how many), Mark Johnson, a former Commissioner on the Regulatory Commission of Alaska and the General Counsel of Chugach Electric, and I have co-chaired an annual conference on Alaska energy.  Our goal consistently has been to attempt to peer into the crystal ball, identify what we believe will be a few of the most important legal and economic issues in the coming year affecting the Alaska oil, gas & electricity sectors and find the best speakers we can on each topic.

While this year was a bit of a challenge given the election cycle Continue reading

This week (Nov 15, 2016) on The Michael Dukes Show …

Each Tuesday morning at 7:20 am Alaska, I join KBYR AM700‘s The Michael Dukes Show to discuss the latest in Alaska oil and fiscal issues. This week Michael and I discuss some of the issues expected to arise in the next #AKLeg session now that the smoke from the state election has cleared and the new House and Senate organizations have been formed; in the second segment we discuss two questions that I have for Senate President Kevin Meyer and the remainder of those that voted to cut the PFD in the last session.  I join Michael at 15:30 into the segment.

Listen here or at the widget below and for past episodes, go here.

 

Two questions for Senate President Kevin Meyer this coming Tuesday …

gmail-ak-policymakers-panel-novThis coming Tuesday evening Alaska Common Ground is hosting a post-election panel discussion on Alaska’s fiscal situation.  On the panel are Senate President Kevin Meyer, Rep. Ivy Spohnholz, Rep.-Elect Jennifer Johnston, State Tax Division Director Ken Alper.

According to the invitation (at left), the question being put to the panel is this:

The State of Alaska’s deficit this year is more than two-thirds of the budget, and this is the fifth year in a row savings have financed the deficit. Those savings we have relied upon to finance the deficit look very likely to run out in less than two years. What is the plan to avoid having the budget airplane crash into the fiscal cliff?

While artfully phrased, the set up — “the savings we have relied upon” — leaves a significantly misplaced impression.   Continue reading

“Fiscal Friday” on The Michael Dukes Show (Nov. 11, 2016)

As regular readers know, each Tuesday morning at 7:20 am Alaska, I join KBYR AM700‘s The Michael Dukes Show to discuss the latest in Alaska oil and fiscal issues. This week I also sat in for a day as guest host of Friday’s show while Michael took a well deserved break.

We turned part of the show into “Fiscal Friday,” using it as an opportunity to take a deeper dive into some of the important issues surrounding Alaska’s budget situation.  We broke the discussion into two parts.

Part 1 includes:

  • An overview of the three critical steps involved in setting a budget (determining the approach, projecting revenues and setting spending)(from 1:55 to 13:40 of the podcast),
  • A discussion with Rep. Lynn Gattis on what lies ahead in the coming legislative session on fiscal issues (from 14:25 to 29:25), and
  • A discussion with former Senate President and Walker Transition Team Co-Head Rick Halford on the Permanent Fund, the Permanent Fund Dividend and the “other 50” of the Permanent Fund earnings stream (from 30:25 to the end).

Part 2 includes a discussion during the first part of the third hour about budgeting decisions being made at the University of Alaska, and how those relate to the state’s fiscal situation (from 04:55 to 12:45).

Links to background articles and some of the materials referenced during the discussion are available here.

Listen here or at the widget below.  For past episodes of our ongoing discussion with Michael Dukes on these issues, go here.

This week (Nov 8, 2016) on The Michael Dukes Show …

Each Tuesday morning at 7:20 am Alaska, I join KBYR AM700‘s The Michael Dukes Show to discuss the latest in Alaska oil and fiscal issues. This week Michael and discuss my final election thoughts — as we near the end, who are the core fiscal conservatives and who’s just posing — and my take on Charles Wohlforth’s ADN column on “Stopping oil exploration,” goo.gl/TE7wlX.  I join Michael at 15:20 into the segment.

Listen here or at the widget below and for past episodes, go here.

Some observations on the Permanent Fund and PFD

Yesterday we posted a commentary focusing on how to implement a portion of Governor Hammond’s still highly relevant vision for the Permanent Fund.  See, Fully implementing Governor Hammond’s 50/50 plan (or, how to find another $1.5 billion in revenue without PFD cuts and taxes), https://goo.gl/7Ct8B5.

That piece arose out of some work we have been doing overall on the Permanent Fund in preparation for taking a more active role this upcoming legislative session on fiscal matters as part of the Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets effort.

Today we spoke to the Alaska Support Industry Alliance “Emerging Leaders” cohort on that and some additional topics related to the Permanent Fund and PFD.  The slide deck is above and also available at https://goo.gl/E7mD1L.

Our concluding observations were these:

  • The earnings stream from the PF is not being used to its maximum potential to help solve the fiscal crisis
    Hammond: “The other half of the earnings could be used for essential government services.”   It’s time to implement that vision.
  • How we calculate Hammond’s “other half” is, literally, a billion dollar (annually) issue
  • Cutting the PFD:
    — Makes Alaska a much more government-centered economy (more like Angola than Texas), and
    — Has a large (ISER: the “largest” of all options) adverse impact on the overall Alaska economy

The slidedeck explains how we arrive at those.