From Dermot Cole’s blog today, “Legislators about to pass bill to limit access to campaign finance reports,” Fairbanks Daily News-Miner, Feb. 15, 2012.:

Our legislators are racing to make it more difficult for the public to follow the money at election time.   In the last two weeks, a bill to ease the electronic reporting requirements of candidates with the Alaska Public Offices Commission has been introduced and moved to the verge of final passage in both houses. …

There are onerous tasks associated with running for state office, but electronic filing with the APOC is not one of them. …  Legislators should reverse course on this bill.  They should focus instead on working with the APOC …. 

As someone who has (attempted to) follow campaign finance reports in the past, I agree with Dermot.  The current law, which requires electronic filing for the first time this year, creates transparency and openness — good things.  This proposed change goes in the wrong direction.

For APOC’s views on the bill, see Casey Kelly, “APOC Blasts Bill Changing Campaign Disclosure Rules,” KTOO Juneau, Feb. 14, 2012.

The appearance before Senate Resources last Thursday was interesting.   The slide deck for my testimony is here.   As I said to the Committee, the “August 9″ date on the cover is likely because it was snowing (again) the day I did the slide and my subconscious was wishing for another season.  The actual date, of course, was February 9.

The video of the hearing is here.  My appearance begins at 35:35.  There were several questions and comments by members of the Committee.  The most extensive comments came from Senator Stedman.  Part of my presentation contained a series of slides and discussion around recent forecasts made by the Office of Management of Budget (“OMB”).  The forecasts come from the most recent OMB 10-year plan and  compare the level of state expenditures against revenues over the ten year period beginning with Fiscal Year 2012.

Due to declining oil production, the OMB report clearly shows and my testimony reflects that Alaska government starts running a deficit (expenses exceed revenues) sometime this coming decade under all of the scenarios addressed in the plan.  Under OMB’s most probable scenario, the deficits start in FY 2016 — a little over three years from now — and continue to deepen through the remainder of the decade.   But that scenario assumes the continuation of very robust oil prices, ranging from an average of roughly $109/bbl in FY 2012 to $120/bbl in FY 2022. Continue reading →

My appearance yesterday on the Dan Fagan Show — the television version — is available here.  The segment runs from 1:54:30 to 2:27:10. Dan followed up for a few minutes after beginning at 2:29:30. The discussion started with the recent TAPS decision by Judge Gleason, and went on from there.  We continued the exchange this morning on Dan’s new radio show on KOAN – and ended up having an extended discussion of the Norway business model.  I don’t find a recorded segment available online of the radio discussion, but it was an interesting exchange that I look forward to continuing.

In the meantime, HCR 19, “Acknowledging the lessons learned from the 2011 Norway Policy Tour and encouraging investment in the state’s oil and gas industry,” introduced by Rep. Bob Herron and co-sponsored by Reps. Edgmon, Seaton, Tuck, Guttenberg, Gardner, passed the House Economic Development, Trade and Tourism Committee this week and has been referred to House Rules for consideration before being advanced to the floor for a vote.

Among other things, the Resolution calls on the Legislature to “explore how co-investment in resource extraction activities would benefit private sector job expansion, affordable energy options, value-added options, revenue generation and competitiveness.”  That’s a start.

While catching up on reading over the weekend I came across an article in the Calgary Herald that made my hands go cold.  The headline was “Shell sees oil lows of $70 in 2012 volatility.”

The story reported on Shell’s recent 2012 outlook and quoted Shell Chief Executive Peter Voser as saying, in preparing the outlook, that Shell had used “a $50-$90 range for oil.”

Then, discussing the $50-$90 planning range, “Simon Henry, Shell’s chief financial officer, told analysts: ‘I’m not sure we see it right at the bottom of that one over the next 12 months, but we could certainly see it in the middle of that range.’”

What is the impact on Alaska if Shell’s outlook is correct, and oil ends up “in the middle” of a $50 – $90/barrel price range on the year?  Very, very bad things. Continue reading →